Does a slowing economy increase the risk of loan defaults in private debt?

Well-run private debt funds use rigorous scenario testing and real-time monitoring to mitigate risks. Historical net write-offs by banks peaked at just 0.68% during the GFC and were 0.04% in September 2024, demonstrating strong resilience across economic cycles.

Does a loan default always result in a credit loss?

No. Private debt investors are protected by their seniority in the capital structure. Senior debt holders get repaid first, before subordinated debt, preferred equity, and common shareholders. Covenants and controls act as early warning signals allowing lenders to engage with borrowers to mitigate financial loss.

Are all private debt managers the same?

No. Private debt managers differ significantly in scale, credit skills, and experience. Quality managers need sizable assets under management, bank-level credit skills, extensive networks, and the ability to directly originate and diversify loans across borrowers to achieve optimal outcomes.

Does commercial real estate debt put capital at risk in a property downturn?

Property owners face greater risk than lenders. With typical loan-to-value ratios of 60%, owners' equity acts as a buffer. Even if property values fall significantly, lenders can compel borrowers to restore their position or pursue asset sales to maximize recovery without necessarily incurring losses.

Are non-bank lenders lenders of last resort?

No. Competent private debt managers lend to quality companies and often compete with banks or work alongside them in lending syndicates. Post-GFC regulations requiring banks to hold more capital have created financing gaps that private debt fills for established companies with sound fundamentals.

Why private markets investing will continue to gain traction in 2024

For many years, the private debt market was inaccessible to retail investors, but this is no longer the case.

Interest in private markets has grown rapidly as investors have come to know about the asset class’s ability to serve as an inflation hedge and generate consistent income with low capital volatility.

In the Money Management Portfolio Construction Guide 2024, Metrics Managing Partner, Andrew Lockhart, discusses the opportunities in private markets investing, the factors driving investment, and outlines the roles private debt and private equity can play in investor portfolios.

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Money Management Portfolio Construction Guide 2024 | January 2024

Metrics Credit Partners Pty Ltd ABN 27 159 646 996 AFSL 416 146 (Metrics) makes no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy, completeness or currency of the content. The content is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice. It has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Independent advice should be obtained from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment decisions. To the extent permitted by law, Metrics excludes all liability for any loss or damage arising in any way due to or in connection with the publication of this content, including by way of negligence.

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